WELCOME TO THE ABTEAM OCTOBER BLOG POST

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET

As a headline, we admit, it’s quite an attention grabber. But is there truth to this statement? Actually, there is…

Nationally, our real estate market has always been as diverse as our geography; to try to capture it in broad language and sweeping statements does not serve anyone, and is simply irresponsible reporting. And the experts agree.

Real estate outlooks and forecasts that centre on the “Canadian housing market” simply do not tell the tale of the very distinct provincial markets that, more often than not, are performing at incredibly opposite ends of the spectrum at the same time. Like they are right now, in a big way.

It’s been like that, always. And it doesn’t stop there.

Even within each province there is great regional disparity in the housing market. Southern Ontario real estate values absolutely revolve around proximity to metropolitan areas; but within that, our GTA market is vastly different than say, the Windsor area market.

On top of all that, we need to segment out new home starts from resale; condo from freehold; single family from multi-unit. Any and all of these categories need to be assessed in their own right, in silos if you will, and weighted against the historical performance of those silos in their respective regions. Then, and only then, do we see the clear picture of where we are today.

All this is to say, don’t rely on a diet of snack sized sound bites flashing across your screen for real estate insights. As Q4 unfolds in the Durham Region housing market, let us give you the meat and potatoes of what is really going on, and how it directly impacts you.

You won’t go away hungry.

We are always just a call, text or email away for all of your real estate questions. Thank you for allowing us to serve you and your family!

THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IN REVIEW:

In September, the Central Lakes Association of REALTORS reported 707 residential sales in the Durham Region, up just 35 sales, or 5%, from the 672 sales of September 2024, and up 31 sales, or 4.5%, from August 2025, when 676 sales were reported. Year-to-date, our sales volume is down 10% compared to 2024, with only 6,365 homes selling so far this year. To give some context, by September of 2020, there were 9,699 homes sold.

The average selling price in the Durham Region for the month of September was $877,963, up $17,012, or 2%, from August when we saw an average of $860,951, and down 2% from the September 2024 average of $894,499. Year-to-date we are down 4%. The good news story is that these monthly averages for Durham Region still represent very impressive numbers when viewed in the context of our annual historical averages over the past few years: in 2020, the average selling price in the Durham Region for the year was $706,913. In September of 2020, the average home was selling for just $734,038, so comparatively; we are still enjoying gains. Year-to-date, the average sale price of all residential real estate sold in the Durham Region is $893,527.

The amount of new listing inventory coming onto the market in September was 2,082 units, up 407 properties or 24% from the 1,675 new listings in the previous month and up 6% from the same period the year before, which saw 1,964 new listings enter the market. Year-to-date, we are up 12% in listings entering the market and we have seen 17,183 properties enter the market through the MLS system in Durham Region.

The average days on market for September 2025 was 29 days. The average days on market, year-to-date, sits at 23.

The average Sale Price to List Price Ratio (SP/LP) for all properties sold in September was 98%. Year-to-date, the average SP/LP is 100%.

The current Months of Inventory for September remained at 4.0. The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) for the month of September was 34%. Both of these very important numbers are reflective of a market saturated with inventory. Typically, ratios between 40% and 60% reflect market balance, with anything below that range suggesting a market that benefits buyers and anything above it, a market that benefits sellers.

The Durham Region saw a dollar volume in sales of $620,720,121 in September, making the year-to-date total 13% lower than the previous year-to-date. Oshawa led the way, with a volume of just over $128 million, making Oshawa’s total 16% lower year-to-date than 2024, with its average sale price down 5% year-to-date. Whitby placed an honourable second at almost $116 million, down 17% year-to-date, with its average sale price down 5%
year-to-date. Rounding out the top 3, Clarington posted almost $105.5 million, with a year–to-date decrease of 15% and an average sale price loss of 3% year-to-date.

As always, we have included below a snapshot of performance of the overall market in the Durham Region for the month. For a more specific look at your community, your neighbourhood and your housing style, just call us! We are always available to update you personally on current statistics and inventory, and how they are affecting your home’s value.

INDUSTRY STATS FOR SEPTEMBER:

Durham Region: $877,963
Oshawa: $740,862
Clarington: $823,342
Whitby: $942,378
Scugog: $1,088,279
Ajax: $904,293
Pickering: $935,803
Uxbridge: $1,385,109

Source: CLAR

AVERAGE PRICE BREAKDOWNS FOR SEPTEMBER:

The average detached dwelling sold for $974,377 at 98% of list price in 30 days. 482 units sold.
The average semi-detached dwelling sold for $705,660 at 101% of list price in 22 days. 40 units sold.
The average link dwelling sold for $744,319 at 100% of list price in 19 days. 18 units sold.
The average freehold townhouse sold for $762,690 at 99% of list price in 29 days. 84 units sold.
The average condominium apartment sold for $491,672 at 99% of list price in 41 days. 39 units sold.
The average condominium townhouse sold for $595,568 at 98% of list price in 31 days. 44 units were sold.

Source: CLAR

TORONTO'S HOUSING MARKET CONFRONTS A RECKONING - OCTOBER 2025 - David Stroud, Mortgage Sandbox

New construction collapses as economic headwinds mount. Toronto's residential property market is facing a significant downturn that goes beyond typical cyclical fluctuations. This decline signifies not just a slowdown, but a fundamental breakdown in the new construction sector. The decline in sales is hiding a more serious issue regarding development capacity. As projects are completed without new ones being started, many trades people may face unemployment, which could worsen the overall deterioration of Canada’s labour market.

Employment weakness compounds housing pressures. Additionally, weaknesses in employment are exacerbating housing pressures. This fragility in the labour market directly undermines housing demand, as job security remains the primary factor influencing mortgage qualification and buyer confidence.

Sentiment indicators signal further deterioration. This prevailing pessimism often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as potential buyers postpone their purchases in hopes of better terms, leading to decreased transaction volumes and reinforcing negative expectations about prices.

Strategic implications diverge by market position. For sellers, particularly in the condominium sector, taking immediate action could yield better financial outcomes. Market forces are currently pushing prices down, and further declines seem more likely than a turnaround. While the spring selling season usually benefits sellers, this pattern will occur within an overall declining trend.

On the other hand, buyers with stable jobs and strong financial standing may find tactical opportunities, especially in the condominium market. Aggressive negotiation can lead to concessions, as sellers face rising carrying costs and dwindling alternatives. However, buyers should remain cautious with leverage assumptions. Waiting until late 2025 or even into 2026 may offer additional price reductions, but this strategy carries the risk of missing crucial turning points if policies or trade conditions change.

The fundamental challenge facing Toronto's housing market is multifaceted, involving restrictive monetary policy, declining employment, negative consumer sentiment, adjustments in federal immigration policy, and trade disruptions. The impacts of the current situation are uneven across different property types and regions. However, the collapse of the new construction sector and persistently high unemployment indicate that recovery is still far off unless significant policy interventions or external shocks occur. Source: mortgagesandbox.com, David Stroud

FALL TIP OF THE MONTH:

HALLOWEEN RECIPES IDEAS:

Whether you're planning to deck out the house and host a Halloween Party or are bringing something for the sideboard at a Halloween potluck, a good Halloween appetizer is a must-have item. Check out these recipe ideas below:

50 Easy Halloween Recipes

31 Wickedly Delicious Appetizers for Your Halloween Party

15 Easy Halloween Appetizers That Always Wow

50+ Halloween Food Ideas for Kids

 

2025 HALLOWEEN COSTUME IDEAS:

Spirit of Halloween

DIY Halloween Costumes for Adults and Kids

 

OCTOBER DATES TO REMEMBER:

OCTOBER 19TH - INTERNATIONAL MEN'S DAY

OCTOBER 20TH - UNIVERSAL CHILD'S DAY

OCTOBER 29TH - THE BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISION

OCTOBER 31ST - HAPPY HALLOWEEN - BE SAFE EVERYONE!

As always, we are sincerely grateful for the opportunity to serve your real estate needs, and those of your family and friends, neighbours and co-workers.  It is a constant thrill to receive personal recommendations from our clients, and we have been so fortunate to be able to build our business on our name and reputation – and it’s all thanks to you!