WELCOME TO THE ABTEAM JANUARY 2026 BLOG!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

This month, all of our 2025 stats are in, so as we do every year, our blog is dedicated to fully detailed market intelligence. We strongly believe that keeping you informed and educated on the historical data empowers you to make the wisest of decisions with your largest and most valuable assets, both now and in the future. A deep dive into the 2025 numbers will clearly show where we were, where we are and most importantly, where it looks like we are heading.

What are we anticipating for 2026? There are many unfortunate scenarios playing out right now across the GTA; these are serious factors that directly affect property values for all owners. The market is struggling under the weight of an ever-increasing supply of bank sales; we have highly motivated builders saddled with defaulted purchases and standing inventories; and we have many vacant homes owned by desperate sellers who bought on speculation and are now paying a hefty price for their ill-fated gamble. On top of all that, we have continuing unease on the geopolitical stage, especially our ongoing trade issues with the U.S. All of this has a role in what direction our real estate market takes. The next Bank of Canada rate announcement at the end of January dovetails with the release of their Monetary Policy Report (MPR); this will set the target for the overnight rate and provide an overview of the Bank’s position on inflation and forecast their expectations for our economic growth for 2026. We are expecting a cautionary tale from the BOC, as that is their usual position during uncertain times. Many chief economists are predicting they will maintain their key rate at the current 2.25% throughout most of 2026, and that fixed mortgage rates could rise by mid to late 2026 due to the potential for volatility in bond yields.

First-time buyers will always fuel the entire housing machine, so as prices continue to soften and conditions improve for more to enter into home ownership, it will feed every other price category. The golden opportunity in market conditions such as this is for the move-up buyer who has owned their home since before 2021; those fortunate and savvy owners can really leverage the advantage of having great equity in their present home and being able to buy up at substantially reduced prices. In essence, they could actually skip an entire move, and go right from their starter to their executive dream home, completely bypassing the usual intermediate move. A market like this comes along only once every 30-35 years; it’s definitely laden with challenges for some, but also amazing possibilities and creative options for many!

THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN REVIEW:

In December, the Central Lakes Association of REALTORS reported 455 residential sales in the Durham Region, decreasing 27% from the 622 of the previous month, but up 12.5% from the 404 posted for December 2024. Historical data confirms a decline in sales volume for every December from the previous month, which is understandable. Year-over-year, our sales volume was down 11% compared to 2024, with 8,128 sales in total for 2025.

The average selling price in the Durham Region for the month of December was $844,473 – a nominal increase of just $3,640 over the previous month’s $840,833 but a substantial decrease of $85,734 or 9% from December 2024’s $930,207. Year-over-year, the average selling price of $882,667 is 4% lower than the average for 2024, which was $922,130.

The amount of new listing inventory coming onto the market in December was 529 units, up 43 units, or 9%, from the 486 in the same period the year before. The Durham Region finished out 2025 with 1,424 Active Listings on the market as we entered 2026. Year-over-year, we were up 10% in listings entering the market, with a total of 20,691 properties entering the market through the MLS system in Durham Region.

The average days on market for December 2025 rose to 38 days. As 2025 finished out, the days on market average was 25.

The average Sale Price to List Price Ratio (SP/LP) for all properties sold in December was 98%. The average SP/LP for the entirety of 2025 was 100%.

The current Months of Inventory factor sits at 3.1, indicative of the surplus of inventory that is sitting on the market. Interestingly, the Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) for the month of December was off the chart at 86%, with sales vastly outstripping the number of new listings entering the market. Typically, ratios between 40% and 60% reflect market balance, with anything below that range suggesting a market that favours buyers and anything above it, a market that benefits sellers. The takeaway: buyers are choosing to pursue the newest offerings to hit the market and are bypassing older inventory.

Source CLAR

2025 IN REVIEW:

2025 represented only a nominal increase in the volume of sales from the 10 year low of 2023. The following historical table illustrates the journey our local real estate marketplace has been on over the last decade:

In total, 20,691 listings were taken in 2025, resulting in 8,128 sales, with an Average Sale Price to List Price ratio of 100% for the year. The average number of days on market came in at 25. In 2024, the Average Sale Price to List Price ratio was 102% with a 20 day average market time. In 2023, those same valuations were 104% and 15 days, respectively.

In 2025, the 8,128 sales in Durham on the MLS system represent a decrease of 11% from the previous year. The average selling price of $882,667 reflects a 4% decrease from 2024. As of the end of 2025, the total number o$f 8li8st2in,6g6s7 that came onto the market was up by 10% from the previous year-to-date numbers.

The Durham Region saw a dollar volume in sales of just over $7 billion in 2025, down 15% from the previous year. Oshawa once again led the way in both listings taken and number of sales, finishing the year with a sales volume of $1.6 billion. Here’s the breakdown, community by community:

THE AVERAGE PRICE BREAKDOWN FOR DECEMBER 2025:

Below is the performance of the overall market in the Durham Region for the month. For a more specific look at your community, your neighbourhood and your housing style, just call us! We are always available to update you personally on current statistics and inventory, and how they are affecting your home’s value.

UPCOMING ABTEAM 4TH ANNUAL FAMILY SKATE DAY EVENT:

Your invitations are in the mail! Mark your calendars!

Please come out and join us at our 4th annual Family Skate Day on Sunday, February 15th (see further details below). We are excited to announce that this years event will have several of Oshawa Generals players and their mascot Deke will also be joining us for a meet and greet.

Also, don't miss your chance to win one of many fabulous prizes and get your complimentary VIP tickets to this years National Home. 

Hope to see you there on Family Day Long Weekend!

Please note: Must bring your own skates and helmets - there are no rentals available, thank you!

CLICK HERE TO RSVP

It is always our wish to be your wise counsel, guide and advocate for every real estate transaction you ever make. We maintain that our worth to you is in these areas of knowledge, experience, expertise and insight. With that said, please remember that we are only just a phone call, text or email away from serving you and your loved ones at the highest level of competency in the real estate industry.