WELCOME TO THE ABTEAM AUGUST BLOG POST!

ARE THESE THE SIGNS THAT WE ARE RETURNING TO A BALANCED MARKET?

In July sales statistics revealed some interesting anomalies that warrant close observation over the next two months as we see what Q3 of 2025 has in store for us. Sales were up – an atypical summer event, to be sure. New
inventory slowed – a very good thing, as it allows some of the surplus housing levels to begin to normalize. And yes, prices dropped yet again but -- not drastically; nothing that would trigger alarm bells.

Are buyers acclimating to current market conditions, mortgage rates and the lack of movement from the Bank of Canada? Is the wild performance of the stock market giving encouragement? Are people resigned to the tariff issue, accepting that much of it will not directly affect them? Are Canadians starting to get comfortable again with home ownership after months of sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the perfect time to buy. (Spoiler alert: it is ALWAYS the perfect time to buy; the “buy and hold” methodology will never fail a home owner. The problems occur when owners don’t do the holding part of the equation and treat real estate like it’s a trading commodity.)

Before we get too ahead of ourselves and start making hasty predictions – something we are never prone to do but the mainstream media seems to love to do – this data does beg the question: are we beginning to stabilize? Is this the heralding of the return (finally!) to the old “normal” market of the pre-pandemic years?

Of course, only time will tell. We are still trending downward in sold values but if they remain marginal, that could be an indication that a plateau is coming. Clearly, we are being cautiously optimistic with this data. We still have a lot of unknowns in the global political and financial markets, the Canadian unemployment rate is still relatively high and millions of Canadians are still set to renew their mortgages within the next 18 months. Any of these factors could prove to be a tipping point for the Canadian real estate industry. In the meantime, showings have been greatly reduced in quantity, but not necessarily in quality; good homes are selling, it’s just taking a whole lot longer. Keep in mind, it is ever a beauty pageant out there; pretty will always sell first. With solid sales performance in the entry price point of under $800,000 in the Durham Region, we hope to see some of that activity translate into improved conditions in the upper price categories, where activity and sales are sluggish, to say the least.

THE MONTH OF JULY IN REVIEW!

In July, the Durham Region Association of REALTORS reported 852 residential sales in the Durham Region, up 4% from June, when 817 sales were reported, and up 9.5% from the 779 sales of July 2024. Year-to-date, our sales volume is down 12% from 2024, with just 4,999 homes selling so far this year.

The average selling price in the Durham Region for the month of July fell to $885,259. June had seen an average of $891,662 so July is down minimally -- approximately $6,403 or less than 1%. Year-over-year, July 2025 showed a more significant decline from the $915,636 average sale price of July 2024 – a loss of $30,377 or 3.5%. Yearto-date we are down 4% from 2024.

After a four month run-up in values that began in January, July 2025 represents the third month of the year where the average sale price declined month-over-month. Our peak month to date for 2025 was April. It is, nonetheless, still a very impressive average selling price for the Durham Region when viewed in the context of our historical annual averages over the past decade; the average sale price for the year 2015 was just $442,082. The average selling price of all homes thus far in 2025 is $900,089.

The amount of new listing inventory coming onto the market in July was 2,058 units – down 10% or 224, from the 2,282 units in June but up just slightly by 35 units from July 2024 when 2,023 new listings entered the market. Year-to-date we are up 14% in the number of listings coming onto the market compared to 2024. These numbers are a little misleading however, as they do not account for the large amount of terminations and suspensions of property, and then the re-listing of same, that we are currently witnessing with the longer market times to sell. However, there is no question that inventory levels are high.Year-to-date 13,425 residential listings in Durham Region have entered the MLS market.

The average days on market for July rose to 25 days. The average days on market, year-to-date, remained at 21.

The average Sale Price to List Price Ratio (SP/LP) for all properties sold in July dropped to 99%. Year-to-date, the average SP/LP is 100%.

The current Months of Inventory factor dropped slightly in July to land at 3.3 -- this is very important as it indicates just how much inventory we are currently sitting with. The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) for the month of July rose from June to hit 41.4% -- entering balanced market territory. Typically, ratios between 40% and 60% reflect market balance, with anything below that range suggesting a market that favours buyers and anything above it, a market that benefits sellers.

The Durham Region saw a dollar volume in sales of $754,240,376 in July -- making the year-to-date total 15% less than 2024. Whitby led the way, with a volume just shy of $170 million, making Whitby’s total 17% lower year-to-date than 2024, with its average sale price down 6% year-to-date. Oshawa placed an honourable second at almost $157 million, down 19% year-to-date, with its average sale price down 4% year-to-date. Clarington posted almost $147 million, down 17% year-to-date, with an average sale price loss of 2% year-to-date. Source: CLAR

THE AVERAGE PRICE BREAKDOWN FOR JULY 2025:

• The average detached dwelling sold for $992,928 at 99% of list price in 24 days. 560 units sold.
• The average semi-detached dwelling sold for $727,723 at 100% of list price in 22 days. 40 units sold.
• The average link dwelling sold for $777,236 at 100% of list price in 16 days. 25 units sold.
• The average freehold townhouse sold for $760,030 at 100% of list price in 24 days. 110 units sold.
• The average condominium apartment sold for $498,888 at 98% of list price in 33 days. 58 units sold.
• The average condominium townhouse sold for $629,186 at 102% of list price in 28 days. 59 units were sold.
• Source: CLAR

TRREB: GTA NUMBERS SHOW STRONGEST JULY HOME SALES IN FOUR YEARS!

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) experienced the best home sales result for the month of July since 2021. Sales were also up relative to listings, suggesting a modest tightening in the market compared to last year.

“Improved affordability, brought about by lower home prices and borrowing costs is starting to translate into increased home sales. More relief is required, particularly where borrowing costs are concerned, but it’s clear that a growing number of households are finding affordable options for homeownership,” said the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President.

GTA REALTORS® reported 6,100 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in July 2025 – up by 10.9 per cent compared to July 2024. New listings entered into the MLS® System totaled 17,613 – up by 5.7 per cent year-overyear. On a seasonally adjusted basis, July home sales increased month-over-month compared to June 2025. New listings also rose compared to June, but by a much lesser rate. With sales increasing relative to listings, market conditions tightened. The average selling price, at $1,051,719, was down by 5.5 per cent compared to July 2024.

“Recent data suggest that the Canadian economy is treading water in the face of trade uncertainty with the United States. A key way to mitigate the impact of trade uncertainty is to promote growth in the domestic economy. The housing sector can be a catalyst for growth, with most spin-off expenditures accruing to regional economies. Further interest rate cuts would spur home sales and see more spin-off expenditures, positively impacting the economy and job growth,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer. Source: TRREB

SAVE THE DATE ... JOIN THE ABTEAM AT OUR UPCOMING SUMMER SOCIAL EVENT! HAPPENING NEXT FRIDAY, AUGUST 22ND 6-8PM!  (See details below)

OTHER DATES TO REMEMBER:

AUGUST 12 - INTERNATIONAL YOUTH DAY

AUGUST 13 - LEFT HANDER'S DAY

AUGUST 19 - WORLD HUMANITARIAN DAY

AUGUST 26 - NATIONAL DOG DAY

As always, we are sincerely grateful for the opportunity to serve your real estate needs, and those of your family and friends, neighbours and co-workers.  It is a constant thrill to receive personal recommendations from our clients, and we have been so fortunate to be able to build our business on our name and reputation – and it’s all thanks to you!